沿海城市风暴潮灾害风险评估研究述评

A Review on Risk Assessment of Storm Surge of Coastal Cities

对风暴潮灾害形成机理、风暴潮灾害风险评估方法、灾害风险区划与等级评估、灾害损失评估等方面进行了梳理和分析,认为:①风暴潮灾害风险评估指标体系目前多为主要社会因子和经济损失因子,而忽视主要气象水文指标(最大增水、中心风速等)对风暴潮灾害的影响,研究发现,最大增水和风暴潮灾害呈正相关关系;可通过主成分分析等相关数学模型提取指标因子,避免指标选取主观随意性,又能够客观的确定指标因子的权重;②应建立统一的风暴潮灾害风险评估综合指标;提出建立灾害熵综合风险评估方法,定量的反映所研究区域灾害损失整体水平,灾害熵值也可作为划分灾害等级的分级量度。

Formation mechanism,risk assessment methods,disaster risk zoning and grade assessment,and disaster damage assessment of storm surge disasters are summarized and analyzed. Some opinions are given as follows： ①Most of the present risk assessment index systems of storm surge disasters use the main social factors and economic losses factor,but neglect the main indicators of meteorology and hydrology （ the largest increasing water, the center wind speed,etc. ） on the impact of storm surge disasters. In fact,there is a positive correlation between the largest increasing water and storm surge disaster; index factor can be extracted by principal component analysis and other related mathematical model to avoid the subjective and arbitrariness to selecting indicators, which can determine the weight of indicators of factors objectively; ②A unified assessment indicator of storm surge disaster risk should be established; Comprehensive risk assessment based on disaster entropy method is proposed, and it can reflect the overall level of disaster losses quantitatively. Value of disasters entropy can be the measurement of disasters grade classification.