生育率下降背景下高等教育扩张与大学生就业困难——从“98亚洲金融危机”到2008“次贷金融危机”

Fertility Decline in the Context of Higher Education Expansion and Employment Difficulties Faced by College Students:From "98 Asian Financial Crisis" to 2008 "Sub-prime Mortgage Financial Crisis"

运用人口社会学视角对两次金融危机背景下的大学生就业问题进行探讨,尝试从宏观就业市场的人口队列效应、教育规模的"非常规"扩张到后危机时代的产业结构调整维度论证金融危机本身这一"突发性"的外部因素对大学生就业的影响程度。只有深化改革、完善市场调节机制,大学生就业难的深层次矛盾才可能因为这次金融危机获得纾解的时间与机会。教育及其他一系列公共事业投入与发展规划需将宏观人口发展战略纳入其中。

In this paper, a demographic sociological perspective was applied to study issues a- bout employment of university students in the context of two financial crisis, by which macro co- hort effect of labor population, ＂unconventional＂ expansion of high education and adjustment of the industrial structure to demonstrate that financial crisiS,this ＂ad hoc＂ external factors on the employment of university students will have certain impact, but limitedly, only deep reform, im- proving the market adjustment mechanism, tension on college students＇ employment would be likely relieved after 2008 subprime crisis. Besides we need comprehensive plan about public utility by means of demographic scheme.