农民对农村社会养老保险的心理预期及其影响因素——对武汉市J区农民的调查分析

A Study on the Farmers’ Psychological Expectancy for Social Insurance in Rural Areas and Its Determinants——Based on Sample Survey in J District,Wuhan

以问卷调查所得的462份调查资料为基础,对农民社会养老保险的心理预期及其影响因素进行了实证分析。农民对农村社会养老保险的心理预期相对比较低,年龄等个人特征和家庭子女数、家庭年净收入等家庭特征对农民社会养老保险的心理预期影响显著。提出了增加政府对农村社会养老保险的投入、在完善农村社会养老保险制度的同时有步骤地构建多支柱的农村养老体系、将当前正在实施的"农村部分计划生育家庭奖励扶助养老制度"逐步过渡到"普惠型"的农村养老保障制度等对策。

Based on a survey of people who lived in rural community, this paper examines the farmers＇ psychological expectancy for social insurance in rural areas using the multinomial lo- gistic model. The study finds that the farmers＇ psychological expectancy for social insurance in rural areas is remarkably affected by individual and family characteristics, such as age, number of children, and year of the family net income. Based on the analysis these found, this paper proposed some measures for social insurance in. rural areas and the issue of rural old - age pen- sion, such as increase government input in social insurance in rural areas, constructing multi - pillar rural old - age pension system.