区域经济因素和人口因素对研究生教育规模扩张的影响--对广东省的实证研究

The Effects of Economy and Population on the Expansion of Postgraduate Education Scale

本文基于广东省1995～2007年7大类专业高等院校的面板数据,考察了相关经济因素和人口因素对研究生教育规模扩张的影响。研究结果表明,在静态和动态面板数据模型中,都存在着研究生教育规模扩张相对于GDP总量增长的不平衡性,在动态面板数据模型中,这种不平衡性更加显著,上年度GDP总量的增长会减缓当年研究生教育规模的扩张,而当年GDP总量的增长会加速研究生教育规模的扩张;此外,从动态角度来看,经济因素对研究生教育规模扩张的拉动作用会有所减弱,而人口因素对研究生教育规模扩张的拉动作用日趋增强。

This paper utilizes the panel data of seven primary categories of specialized colleges from 1995 to 2007 to inspect the effects of the related economic and population factors on the postgraduate enrolment scale in Guangdong Province. The results indicate that in both the static model and dynamic panel data model,there exists the imbalance between the scale of postgraduate enrolment and the growth in the GDP total quantity,while in the dynamic panel data model,this imbalance is more remarkable. The growth of GDP total quantity in the previous year could slow down the expansion of the scale of postgraduate enrolment,while the growth of GDP total quantity in the same year could accelerate the expansion of the scale of postgraduate enrolment. From the dynamic viewpoint,the pulling function of the economic factor to the scale of postgraduate enrolment might become weaker,while that of the population factor to the scale of postgraduate enrolment become increasingly stronger.