多阶段多元判断偏好群决策在大型体育赛事风险管理中应用

Multiple Stages and Multiple Judgment Preferences Used in Risk Management of the Large-scale Sport Events

基于多阶段多元判断偏好下的群决策,为大型体育赛事运营时风险管理决策者提供科学可行的动态决策方法。该方法根据群决策者给出的互反或互补判断偏好信息,建立集结偏好的最优化模型,计算各阶段决策者的客观权重,将决策者的客观权重与主观权重结合为综合权重,再根据决策者权重计算决策阶段权重,最后建立最优化模型将多阶段多元偏好集结成群体综合偏好,并选出最优方案。实例说明了此方法不仅便于充分利用大型体育赛事运营风险考评的历史数据,而且使其风险决策的更为客观、科学。

Based on multiple stages and multiple judgment preferences,a scientific and workable group decision-making method is provided to operational risk decision-makers of the large-scale events.According to the complementary or reciprocal comparison information given by decision-makers,an optimal model is constructed to aggregate preferences.And the objective weights of the decision-makers are determined every stage.The synthetic weights are obtained by combining the objective weights and the subjective weights.Then the paper calculates the weights of decision-making stages.Following that,the multiple stages and multiple preferences are aggregated into the group preference.The example illustrates that the method not only makes full use of the historical data of the operational risk decision-making during the large-scale sport events,but also makes risk decision-making more objective and scientific.