资本账户开放与系统性金融危机

Capital Account Liberalization and Systemic Financial Crisis

本研究以全球范围内具有代表性的55个国家的跨国数据为基础,通过实证分析系统考察了资本账户开放和系统性金融危机之间的相关关系。实证结果表明,在资本账户开放和系统性金融危机的联系机制方面,重要的是开放方式的选择,而不是开放程度的高低:长期中资本账户开放程度的提高不会诱发金融危机,但激进式的资本账户开放方式会显著增加金融危机的发生概率。

Based on the economic data of 55 countries,this paper tries to identify the relationship between capital account liberalization and systemic financial crisis.The empirical results show that it is the liberation mode rather than liberalization degree that matters in relation to financial crisis.The probability of financial crisis decreases as the degree of capital account liberalization increases in the long run,but countries with open capital account in the way of 'Big Bang' are prone to systemic financial crisis.