通货膨胀预期形成、锚定:基于消费者和经济学家预期的分析

A Study on the Formation and Anchoring of Inflation Expectation:an Analysis Based on Comparison between Consumers and Economists

本文在区分居民通货膨胀预期和经济学家通货膨胀预期的基础上,研究通货膨胀预期形成和锚定的特点,发现经济学家通货膨胀预期呈现不规则的正态分布,往往在通货膨胀实际值较低时更多的经济学家做出偏高预期。居民通货膨胀预期显示低收入阶层对物价上涨更为敏感,大城市居民通货膨胀预期最敏感。总体如果半数以上的人认为物价上涨,则出现恶性通货膨胀的概率增加。发现居民物价预期指数是通货膨胀的格兰杰成因,但经济学家通货膨胀预期却不必然导致通货膨胀发生。国际比较发现英国居民物价预期指数显著高于中国。锚定通货膨胀预期的关键是防止通货膨胀预期加速形成,防止中央银行陷入通货膨胀预期陷阱,为此需要单一化中央银行职责,建立通货膨胀预期中期监测机制,竖立中央银行反对通货膨胀的信任度。

This paper studies the differences between the inflation expectations of consumers and economists.We find that economists' inflation expectation shows anomalous normal distribution with higher estimation than actual performance while that of consumers indicates that low-income social stratum tends to be more sensitive to price rise and consumers from big cities are prone to be sensitive to inflation expectation,that consumer price expectation index are the Granger cause of inflation while economists' inflation expectation does not necessarily lead to actual inflation,that consumer price expectation index in Britain is significantly higher than that in China.The key to anchoring inflation expectation is to prevent the acceleration of inflation expectation and the inflation expectation pitfall of the Central Bank.Thus we need to unify the functions of the Central Bank,to establish medium-term supervision system for inflation,and to build the trust of central bank's anti-inflation policies.