当前中国通货膨胀压力成因与治理——外汇储备和产能角度下的分析

Toward the Causes and Measures of Inflation Pressure——an Analysis Based on Foreign Exchange Reserves and Production Capacity

由于治理全球金融危机的扩张性政策刺激,中国的宏观经济形势自2009年11月开始由通货紧缩向通货膨胀转变。原材料价格、农产品价格、股价、房价急速上扬,这些使人明显地感受到前段时间的经济衰退正在演变成资产经济泡沫和通货膨胀。在这种背景下,本文回顾中国经济理论界对通货膨胀的研究,探讨当前外汇储备过高和产能严重过剩形成通货膨胀压力的机制。最后,就如何缓解当前的通货膨胀压力提出了初步建议。

China economy has been shifting from deflation to inflation since November 2009 due to expansion policies targeting global financial crisis.Sharp price increases in raw materials,produce,stock and real estate show that asset bubble and inflation are replacing economic downturn.This paper reviews studies on inflation by China academicians,explores the mechanism of high foreign exchange reserves and excess production capacity on inflation pressure,and finally proposes recommendations to subdue inflation.