资源诅咒传导机制之“荷兰病”——理论模型与实证研究

A Theoretical and Empirical Study of Dutch Disease

"荷兰病"指一个国家或地区的资源产业突然繁荣往往会通过要素、产品和货币市场的一系列反应挤出当地制造业,使之逐渐衰退,或者难以起步,它是典型的资源诅咒传导机制之一。本文首先简单介绍了荷兰病产生的原因和危害,然后借助模型分析详细解释其背后的原理,继而通过实证和案例分析说明在我国,荷兰病具有相当的普遍性,并且不同于荷兰、挪威等发达国家,我国荷兰病的主要症结在于挤出制造业固定资产投资,而非提高劳动力雇佣成本。最后,以现实为基础提出如何改变我国资源富集地区产业单一化和初级化的政策建议,目的在于充分发挥这些地区的资源优势,缩小东西部差距。

'Dutch Disease'is one of the most typical transmission channels of 'Resource Curse'.This study firstly introduces the causes and harms of Dutch Disease,then analyses its mechanics through a model.An Empirical and a case study are also given to indicate that this 'disease' is somewhat popular in most resource rich regions in China.Unlike those developed resource rich countries such as Netherlands and Norway,the main cause of Dutch Disease in China is spill-over of manufacture investment without increasing labor cost.Finally,the paper proposes some recommendations.