矿井瓦斯抽采量的灰色动态预测

Grey dynamic prediction of mine gas extraction volume

文章应用灰色系统理论建立了矿井瓦斯抽采量的灰色动态预测模型,并对贵州盘江煤电(集团)公司山脚树矿井的瓦斯抽采量进行了预测,经过精度检验和残差修正,结果表明该模型对矿井瓦斯抽采量的拟合效果良好,预测结果可靠,反应出了矿井瓦斯抽采量的发展态势。该模型对矿井安排瓦斯抽采工作、合理规划瓦斯利用方案具有很好的指导意义。

With the grey system theory,a grey dynamic prediction model of the mine gas extraction volume was established and was applied to predict the mine gas extraction volume from the Shanjiaoshu Mine of Guizhou Panjiang Coal and Electric Power Group Corporation.After the accuracy inspection and the residue differences correction,the results showed that the model could have good fitting effect to the mine gas extraction volume,the predicted results would be reliable and could reflect the development tendency of the mine gas extraction volume.The model could have good guidance to arrange the mine gas drainage and extraction and rationally plan the gas utilization alternatives.