基于博弈论综合权重模糊优选模型在地下水环境风险评价中的应用

A Fuzzy Optimization Model Based on Comprehensive Weight Calculated with Game Theory and Its Application in Environment Risk Assessment of Groundwater System

地下水环境风险评价是地下水可持续利用的前提。目前,评价方法比较单一,主要为突变理论和单因素模糊理论,它们的控制变量数有限,不适用于多目标决策,同时也没有综合考虑主客观权重,评价结果不科学。本文针对以往评价方法的不足,应用基于主客观综合权重的多层多目标模糊可变优选模型评价。模型采用熵权法计算客观权重,二元对比法确定主观权重,并利用博弈论集结模型推导计算了综合权重,并以海河流域地下水环境为例进行了风险评价。计算实例表明,该模型能较好地考虑评价指标的主客观权重,适用于多层多目标评价系统。

The environment risk assessment of groundwater system is a prerequisite for the sustainable utilization of groundwater.At present,the catastrophe theory and the single-factor fuzzy theory are presented frequently to assess the environment risk of groundwater.But there are still some drawbacks of these methods,such as the restriction of the number of their control variables,only taking the subjective or objective weight into account and so on.In this paper,a multi-level and multi-objective variable fuzzy optimization model based on the comprehensive weight was advanced.First,the entropy method and two element contrasting method were adopted to calculate the objective and subjective weight,respectively.Then,the aggregate model based on the game theory was adopted to calculate the comprehensive weight.Finally,this model was applied to assess the environment risk of groundwater system in the Haihe River Basin.The results show that this model is feasible to assess the multi-level and multi-objective systems.