摘要
采用调和分析法进行天生港站潮位预报,预报精度不高,经分析长江上游径流是影响其预报精度的主要因素之一。本文通过对上游径流分析,得出天生港站潮位预报误差随同期流量差值增加而增加,差值趋于0时误差亦趋于0;同期流量差值相同,误差随流量的增加而减少;潮位误差的符号与同期流量差值的符号相反,为天生港站潮位的实时预报修正提供了依据,提高了预报的合格率,也可为提高其它感潮河段潮位预报精度提供参考。
The forecast precision is low by using harmonic analysis method of tidal level prediction.The runoff from the upper reaches of the Yangtze River is the main factor influencing the forecast precision.In this paper,the upper runoff was analyzed.The results show that the error of tidal level prediction at the Tianshenggang Station grow with the difference of the corresponding discharge increasing.When the corre-sponding discharge is to zero,the error of tidal level prediction tends to zero too.When the corresponding discharge is same,the error de-creased with the increase of discharges.Symbol of the tide level’s error is contrary to the difference of the corresponding discharge.
出处
《水文》
CSCD
北大核心
2010年第4期56-58,91,共4页
Journal of China Hydrology
关键词
长江
天生港
径流
潮位
Yangtze River
Tiansheng Port runoff
tidal level
