中国人力资本测度与指数构建

China's Human Capital Measurement and Index Construction

尽管人力资本对经济增长与创新的重要作用已成为各国学者和政府的共识,但准确度量人力资本却一直是该领域研究中的难点问题。本文结合我国目前的数据状况,运用并改进Jorgenson-Fraumeni的终生收入法,计算了1985—2007年中国人力资本年度总量及相应的年度人均人力资本,构建了中国人力资本指数,并对2008—2020年的人力资本水平作了预测。计算结果表明,中国人力资本总量和人均量都保持了较快增长速度,但相对于国内生产总值以及物质资本来说,人力资本相对比重呈下降趋势,并且人均人力资本跟发达国家相比仍存在较大差距。

It is generally agreed that human capital is a source of economic growth, innovation and sustainable development for any society, yet its measurement is still an on-going research. In this study, we measure human capital in China with modified Jorgenson-Fraumeni lifetime income approach. We estimate China＇s total human capital stock and per capita human capital from 1985 to 2007, construct various human capital indexes, and make projections up to 2020. Our results show that China＇s total and per capita human capital have grown rapidly, but compared to GDP and physical capital, the relative weights of human capital are declining. The gap in per capita human capital between China and developed countries is large.