我国亚热带樟树的温度适宜性及其变化趋势

Temperature suitability and its change trend of Cinnamomum camphora in subtropical China

运用温度适宜度模型对我国亚热带地区1960—2005年樟树的温度适宜性及其时空差异进行了计算、评价和预测。首先分析我国亚热带樟树温度适宜度的空间分布,划分最适宜区、适宜区、次适宜区和不适宜区;亚热带东部地区樟树的温度适宜性自南向北逐渐减小,亚热带西部地区大部分为不适宜区;其次分析我国亚热带樟树温度适宜度的时间变化,樟树温度适宜度随时间呈波动上升趋势,且随年代际变化适宜区分布范围向北扩展;最后,分析樟树温度适宜度倾向率和变率,结合温度适宜度得出,亚热带南部地区适合樟树的种植,西部地区不适宜种植,北部地区有适宜种植的倾向。

By using temperature suitability model, this paper calculated, evaluated, and predicted the temperature suitability and its spatiotemporal differences of Cinnamomum camphora in subtropical China between 1960 and 2005. Spatially, the temperature suitability of C. camphora could be divided into four areas, i.e., high suitability, suitability, low suitability, and no suitability. In eastern subtropics, the temperature suitability of C. camphora decreased gradually from south to north; while in western subtropics, there was a large area of no suitability. Temporally, the temperature suitability of C. camphora had an increasing trend over time, and the area of temperature suitability was expanding northward. The analysis of the trend rate and variability of the temperature suitability showed that C. camphora was more suitable to be planted in southern subtropics and not suitable in western subtropics, and would be suitable in northern subtropics.