基于投入产出非线性模型的能源强度情景优化

Scenario Optimization of Energy Intensity Based on a Non-linear Input-output Model

节约资源在我国的＂十一五＂规划中已经上升到了基本国策的战略地位,降低能源强度是资源节约的一项具体体现。论文以行业最终需求为决策变量,以2010年能源强度最小为目标,构建了一个基于投入产出的能源强度非线性优化模型。在此基础上,设计了三方案九情景和一个强化节能情景,并采用遗传算法对模型进行求解。研究结论表明：如果不采取强化节能情景,能源强度的最优值区间为0.999 6~1.136 4 tce/104元,没有实现2010年能源强度降低20%的目标。如果实行强化节能,2010年能源强度可下降到0.943 9 tce/104元,相比2005年下降了21.75%,实现了＂十一五＂规划节能降耗20%的目标。

Resource conservation has been raised to a strategic position of basic national policy,in which decreasing energy intensity is a concrete measure.In this paper,a non-linear optimization model was constructed with decision variables being industries＇ final demand aiming at goal of minimum energy intensity in 2010.On that basis,10 scenarios including one of the intensified energy saving were designed and the solving method for the model is genetic algorithm.The research results show： if the scenario of the intensified energy saving won＇t be adopted,the optimal interval of energy intensity in 2010 is from 0.9996 to 1.1364 tce per 104 yuan and the goal that energy intensity in 2010 decreases by 20% can＇t be realized.In contrast,if the intensified scenario is adopted,the energy intensity in 2010 is 0.9439 tce per 104 yuan which decreases by 21.75% compared with 2005.So,the goal can be realized.