售电均价的市场细分预测算法

Average Electricity Sale Price Forecasting Method by Means of Market Segmentation

售电均价是电力营销的重要参数,通过直接求电价加权和以预报售电均价,工作量极大,预测精度也不高。通过引入各细分市场电费比例作为中间量,售电均价预报问题被转化为各细分市场的电费比例预测和售电均价估算。对电费比例预测,采用改进多步混沌加权一阶局域法,对各细分市场售电均价,根据其电价体系进行估算。算法所需数据和计算量大大减少,且在湖南省电力市场均价预测算例中,取得了满意的预测效果。

The average electricity sale price is a important parameter of electricity marketing.The workload of forecasting average price by means of calculating the weighted sums of electricity price is heavy,and the forecasting precision is low.By introducing segment market electricity charge ratio as an intermediate variable,the article transforms the problem of average price forecasting into electricity charge ratio forecasting and average price estimation of each segment market.The article forecasts electricity charge ratio by means of improved multi-step chaotic adding-weight one-rank local-region method;for average price of each segment market,the article estimates it based on the electricity price system.The proposed method reduces forecasting workload remarkably,and achieves satisfactory forecasting effect in the example of Hunan province＇s electricity market average price forecasting.