地方政府消费与经济增长的倒U型关系研究——珠江三角洲城市面板数据分析

An Inverse U-shape of Local Government Consumption and Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis of the Pearl River Delta Cities

不同于以往研究所得到的地方政府消费与经济增长之间非正即负的关系,文章基于厂商利润最大化和消费者效用最大化的微观基础从理论和实证的角度验证了两者之间呈倒U型关系的结论。若以该最优政府消费率为评判标准,2005年之前各个城市政府消费率呈现两极分化的状态并出现一些无效率点,2005年之后呈现趋同的趋势且都小于最优的政府消费率水平。因此,从总量上提高珠江三角洲地区政府在公共品和公共服务上的消费支出将对经济增长有显著的正向作用。

This paper explores the relationship between local government consumption and economic growth based on theories of producers’profit maximization and consumers’utility maximization.Different from the previous conclusions,this research indicates that the economic growth rate evolves as an inverse U-shape with the increase of government consumption rate,which is supported by the panel data empirical research on the Pearl River Delta in 1996-2008.It indicates that the consumption rates of the local governments polarize and have some inefficient points before 2005 while after 2005 they are convergent and less than the optimization level,which shows that the increase of the local government consumption in public goods and services in this area will have a positive effect on the economic growth.