风暴潮变分同化模型

Variation assimilation model of storm surge

为了消除经验参数的不确定性所带来的误差,进一步提升风暴潮预报性能,建立了高分辨率非结构网格风暴潮数值模型,利用变分同化技术自动识别模型参数,有效改善风暴潮预报精度。通过人工合成数据试验验证了变分同化模型理论上的准确性,并进行了0515号卡努台风的模拟证明了变分同化模型实际运用的可行性。

To elimination error caused by uncertain of parameters and further improve forecasting capability of storm surge, the variational data assimilation method was applied to the unstructured storm surge model with spatial high-resolution. This method can effectively improve the forecasting accuracy of storm surge induced by typhoon through controlling wind drag force coefficient. The model was first theoretically validated by twin experiment with synthetic data. Then the real storm surge process induced by TC 0515 was forecasted by variational model to show its practical application.