基于序贯仿真和概率密度分析的四川电网可靠性评估

大电网概率风险评估为电网可靠性性能分析及其薄弱环节识别提供了量化分析的技术手段。详细介绍了序贯蒙特卡洛仿真的基本原理和可靠性指标概率密度分布估计理论,然后采用序贯蒙特卡洛仿真法对四川500 kV和220 kV电网的四种运行方式进行了可靠性评估计算。另外,基于核密度估计技术得到了可靠性指标的概率密度估计,探索了从可靠性指标内在分布规律和结构特征出发深刻揭示电网风险特性的新思路,实现了对四川电网风险更深入的认知。

Probabilistic risk evaluation can provide an effective tool to quantitatively analyze the reliability performance and identify the weak parts of bulk power systems.The basic principles of sequential Monte Carlo simulation and the theory of the probability density estimation for reliability indices are introduced in detail,and then the reliability evaluation using the sequential Monte Carlo simulation approaches is carried out for the four operations modes of Sichuan 500 kV and 220 kV power grid.Moreover,the probability density estimation of the reliability indices is given based on kernel density estimation technique.This probability density information can facilitate us to discover the system risks from the internal distribution laws and structural features of reliability indices,thus it can realize more deeply understanding of the risks in Sichuan power grid.