煤矿企业风险量化分析及预测研究

Study of Risk Quantitative Analysis and Prediction on Coal Mine Enterprise

针对我国煤矿事故不断,对煤矿企业风险度进行量化分析及预测,为安全决策及防护提供依据,减少事故的发生。首先分析煤矿危险源及其统计,然后对其危险进行控制量化,通过前几年的系统安全度和危险控制能力系数,计算出煤矿综合安全度,最后根据其统计数据,用灰色预测理论对未来数年的风险进行预测。对得到的风险度值和预测值,结合煤矿其他因素,制定安全防护措施,可以有效的预防和控制煤矿事故的发生。

In allusion to frequent accident of coal mine in our country,the risk degree of coal mine enterprise should be quantitatively analyzed and predicted in order to provide the basis for decision-making and protection and reduce accident＇s occurrence.First,this paper analyses dangerous source of coal mine and its statistic,then controls and quantifies the dangerous source,and calculates the coal comprehensive safety degree through the system safety degree and risk control ability coefficient few years ago.Finally,according to dangerous source statistics data,the paper has predicted the risk of the coal mine by grey prediction theory.Based on the risk degree and predictions and other factor of coal mine,this paper makes measures of safety protection,which can effectively prevent and control mine accidents.