鄱阳湖流域未来降水变化预测分析

Prediction of Precipitation Change in Poyang Lake Basin

利用鄱阳湖流域的13个国家气象站1961-2001年的实测降水数据和NCEP再分析数据,建立了鄱阳湖流域降水的统计降尺度模型;在IPCC 2000年排放情景特别报告(SRES)中的A2和B2排放情景下,应用HadCM3的输出数据,预测鄱阳湖流域未来3个时段(2010-2039年、2040-2069年、2070-2099年)的降水变化情况。结果表明:鄱阳湖流域大部分区域的降水量有所增加,在本世纪末最大可能增加11.15%。

The observed precipitation series from thirteen national weather stations during 1961 to 2001 and NCEP reanalysis data were used to establish a statistical downscaling model in the Poyang Lake basin. The output data of HadCM3 under A2 and B2 scenarios were inputted to automatically statistical downscaling model to predict the fu- ture precipitation change during 2010 - 2039, 2040 - 2069, 2070 - 2099 periods. The results show that the precipitation will increase in the most area of the Poyang Lake basin, and maximum increase rate can reach 11.15% in the end of this century