美国视角下的北美自由贸易区旅游流危机评估

Tourism Flow Evaluation in North American Free Trade Area from Perspective of US

依据1988—2008年统计数据,建立了美国北美自由贸易区内主要国家双边旅游本底趋势线,定量分析了贸易区内主要国家双边旅游发展趋势及境内外危机事件对客流量的影响。结果发现,美加双边旅游流呈现反对称,加拿大游客入境美国客流量处于第二个生命周期的成长阶段,而美国居民出境加拿大却处于衰退甚至停滞阶段;美墨双边旅游流呈现双向增长,美国居民出境墨西哥甚至出现指数增长趋势。此外,以本底趋势线为参照系,定量测定了危机事件期间各客源市场入境客流量的损失量。相对于入境旅游,危机事件对出境旅游影响较弱;相对于各类危机事件,金融危机类事件对旅游业影响持续的时间较长。

Based on the data from 1988 to 2008,this paper constructed bilateral tourism background line in North American Free Trade Area（NAFTA） and quantitatively analyzed the bilateral tourism development and influence from different tourism crisis in NAFTA.It turned out that bilateral tourism between US and Canada was anti-symmetry.When arrivals from Canada were in its growth lifecycle,US residence travelling abroad to Canada decreased or even showed stagnation;the bilateral tourism between US and Mexico grew in both ways.It seemed that US residence travel abroad to Mexico grew exponentially.In addition,taking tourism background trend line as reference,this paper also quantitatively examined the influence of tourism crisis,which was more serious on outbound tourism.It was obvious that crisis from financial field lasted longer and costed more.