中国省域低碳消费影响因素的空间模式研究

Spatial Econometric Analysis of Low-carbon Consumption in China's Provinces

借鉴C-D函数双对数经验,采用五个解释变量,自建模型并引入空间效应研究中国省域低碳经济问题。得出:省域煤炭消费行为存在空间效应,溢出效应参数估计值最高达到0.1286,并随着距离逐步变小;煤炭消费量与产业结构、人口增长、资源禀赋、收入水平和人口、工业经济增长存在内生的联系,其中产业结构和人口增长是影响能源消费行为的两个最重要的因素,而较高的工业经济增长并不必然伴随较高的煤炭消费量。为此应调整产业结构、加大技术改进等,实现低碳经济。

Relying on C-D function form＇s double logarithm, five explanatory variables, and self-designed models, this paper uses spatial effect to study the low-carbon economy in China＇s provinces. The conclusion is that there is spatial effect in the provincial coal consumption and the estimated parameter spillover value is 0.1286. The longer the distance and the smaller the value. There is endogenous connection between coal consumption on the one hand and industrial structure, population growth, resource endowment, income level and population, and industrial economy growth on the other. Industrial structure and population growth are the two most important factors that affect energy consumption. High industrial economy growth will not necessarily result in high coal consumption. Therefore, it is necessary to adjust industrial structure and strengthen technological upgradation so as to realize low-carbon economy.