灰色预测模型在非致命武器经济寿命预测中的应用

Application of Grey GM （1,1） Model in the Non -lethal Weapon Research Costs Forecasting

针对目前非致命武器经济寿命方面的研究相当缺乏的现状，结合非致命武器的自身特点，在全面分析装备全寿命周期费用的基础上，引入灰色理论，运用GM（1，1）模型对非致命武器的经济寿命周期费用进行估算和预测。通过分析，灰色预测模型具有较高的建模精度，预测方法和结果对非致命武器的经济寿命预测具有很强的实用性。

At present, the cost estimation of non - lethal weapons is short of research. In this paper, the inherent characteristics of non - lethal weapons, the introduction of gray theory, the use of GM （ 1, 1 ） model of non - lethal weapons research and development cost estimation and prediction are presented. Through analysis, we can verifythat gray prediction model has a high modeling accuracy. The forecasting methods and results of non - lethal weapons research is of a certain reference value to estimate the lifespan of non - lethal weapons.