模拟蟹肉中副溶血性弧菌预测生长预测模型的建立

Construction of growth predictive model of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in simulated crab meat

为了控制模拟蟹肉中副溶血性弧菌的危害,运用预测食品微生物学的方法,本文分别研究了在温度10～37℃条件下模拟蟹肉中副溶血性弧菌的生长规律,建立了一级和二级预测模型。结果表明,副溶血性弧菌的生长曲线在此温度范围内都呈典型的S型,故本文采用Gompertz模型拟合,二级模型采用常用的平方根模型拟合,拟合方程为U=0·01578(T+7·294)。通过模型验证,预测值和实测值的残差在±0·04范围内,偏差因子和精准因子均在可接受范围内,模型具有可靠性。

In order to control hazard of Vibrio parahaemolyticus and predict its development in simulated crab meat,the growth law of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in simulated crab meat from 10℃ to 37℃ were studied by using food predictive microbiology,and the primary and secondary growth predictive model were established.The results showed the growth curve was typical S-shaped,and Gompertz model was applied to fit them.The secondary growth model of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in simulated crab meat was described by the square root model：U =0.01578（T＋7.294）.Validation of the models showed that the residual difference of predicted and observed value was within±0.04,and the values of bias factor and accuracy factor were also acceptable statistically.The predictive models are highly reliable.