开放经济下中国货币政策效果实证研究

An Empirical Study of the Effectiveness of China's Monetary Policy in the Open Economy

本文使用贸易开放度和金融开放度度量了经济开放度,并通过修正后的Karras产出与价格模型,对开放经济下中国货币政策效果进行了研究。结果表明:(1)中央银行采取扩张性的货币政策动机在开放经济下受到制约,经济开放度的提高对中国保持较低的通货膨胀水平起着积极作用;(2)经济开放度的提高主要通过金融市场和影响工资-价格调整速度两个渠道影响货币政策效果,两个渠道对货币政策效果影响机制不同;(3)货币政策对产出的影响会随着经济开放度的提高而减弱,对价格的影响会随着经济开放度的提高而增强。为此,货币政策中介目标应逐渐由数量性指标向价格性指标过渡,最终目标应确定为以稳定物价为单一目标,货币政策在执行过程中应更加注重国际协调因素。

By modifying the output and price model proposed by Karras and measuring economic openness by trade and financial openess, this paper analyzes the effectiveness of China＇ s monetary policy in the open economy. Main conclusions are reached as follows ： （ 1 ） The People＇ s Bank of China has less intention to expand money supply in the open economy, and the growth of economic openness can help to keep inflation low; （2） Openness affects the results of monetary policy mainly through financial market and its influence on the adjustment speed of wages and prices, which have different influence mechanism; （ 3 ） The increasing openness will weaken the output effect of monetary policy but strengthen the price effect of monetary policy. Therefore, the monetary authority should gradually turn its media aim from quantity index to price index and set price stabilization as the mere prime objective. The monetary authority should also pay more attention to the factor of international coordination.