东北三省装备制造业区域专业化水平分析

Industrial Specialization of Equipment Manufacturing Industry in the Three Provinces of Northeast China

通过对东北三省1993-2006年装备制造业产业的区位商、状态概率分布与各态历经概率的分析,得出东北三省装备制造业发展不均衡,产业发展存在梯度差异并在个别行业中有继续扩大趋势,地区专业化正在形成;辽宁省总体发展态势好于吉林和黑龙江省,吉林省交通运输设备制造业是本地区乃至全国的优势产业;总体看东北三省装备制造业发展状态很不稳定,虽然是传统工业基地,但迁移性仍较大。

The equipment manufacturing industry is the strategic industry which relates to the national economy development,especially in the old Northeast China industrial base including Heilongjiang,Jilin and Liaoning provinces. In this paper,we study models of regional specialization composed of location quotient model,probability distribution and ergodic probabilities model,transition matrix and correlation coefficient model. We calculate the location quotients that can evaluate the level of the specialization of equipment manufacturing industry. Then we adopt discrete-time Markov chain to simulate the probability distribution of location quotient and obtain the transition matrix. We calculate the ergodic probabilities that are used to estimate whether the specialization of regional industry has converged to the steady states and invoke the correlation coeffecient to see the potential of the three provinces in regional specialization division. Based on the analyses of all the indexes of equipment manufacturing industry from 1993 to 2006 in the three provinces,we find that the development of equipment manufacturing industry in the region is not balanced,the grades exist and the gap will be widened. The regional specialization is emerging. Overall,Liaoning is better than Jilin and Heilongjiang,transportation equipment manufacturing industry in Jilin is dominant in the region,even in the whole country. Generally,as a traditional industrial base,Northeast China is unstable in equipment manufacturing industry,and great mobility still exists.