基于STIRPAT模型分析CO_2控制下上海城市发展模式

Analyzing the Developing Model of Chinese Cities under the Control of CO_2 Emissions Using the STIRPAT Model:A Case Study of Shanghai

随着经济的快速发展,中国CO2排放量不断增加,研究中国各大城市采取何种发展模式,减缓CO2的排放量,成为当前研究热点。利用STIRPAT模型,定量分析了CO2排放量与人口、富裕度、城市化水平和技术进步之间的关系,并经岭回归拟合发现人口数量、人均GDP、城市化水平和技术进步每发生1%的变化,将引起CO2排放总量相应发生0.618%、(0.178+0.009lnA)%、0.816%和0.264%的变化。在上述研究的基础上,以上海市为例,通过设置10种不同的发展情景,分析了在何种情景下最有利于减缓CO2的排放。结果表明,当经济、人口保持中速增长,城市化率进程放缓而节能减排技术取得较大进步时,上海市最有利于减缓CO2排放量,此时上海市2010年、2015年和2020年CO2排放量分别为17053.57万t、19286.64万t和20885.69万t。

With the economic development and increasing emissions of CO2,the study has become one of hotspots in the developing model of Chinese cities in order to slow down CO2 emissions. Using the STIRPAT model,this paper analyzed the impact of population,affluence,urbanization and technology on the total CO2 emissions,and the results showed that 1% change of population,per capita GDP,urbanization and technology would cause a corresponding occurrence of 0.618%,（0.178＋0.009lnA）%,0.816% and 0.264% change in the total CO2 emissions. Based on this study,taking Shanghai as an example,it set 10 developing scenarios and analyzed the best model of reducing CO2 emissions. Results show that under the scenario of economy,population in mid-speed,low urbanization and high technology,it would be best for Shanghai to reduce CO2 emissions,and the emissions of CO2 in 2010,2015,2020 would be 17053.57,19286.64,20885.69 ten thousands tons,respectively.