我国经济增长、经济结构与能源消费关系之研究

Research on the Relationship among Economic Growth, Economic Structure and Energy Consumption

本文在研究我国能源消费的过程中,通过对经济学理论和以往学者研究成果的总结分析,得出了经济发展、经济结构、城镇化率、研究与实验发展经费支出等四因素直接影响能源消费的结论。文章利用2003-2008年六年间国内30个省(区、市)的相关数据构建了四个因素对能源消费影响的固定效应面板数据模型,有效地分析了不同要素对能源消费的影响程度。同时,利用自回归移动平均模型对我国2010年的能源消费进行了预测。本文认为,在今后一段时期内,我国的能源消费量将持续增长。加大科技投入和科技创新,提升产业技术水平,提高能源的利用效率,是强化我国在能源领域的竞争力,促进中国经济可持续发展的有效路径。

The paper studies the process of energy consumption in China. By summarizing and analyzing the economic theories and the research achievement of previous scholars, the paper gets four big factors influencing energy consumption, i.e. economic development, economic structure, urbanization rate, and the RD expenditure. The paper applies the data of 30 provinces from 2003 to 2008 to construct the fixed-effect panel data model on the influence of four factors to energy consumption, and effectively analyzes the influencing degree of various factors to energy consumption. At the same time, it applies the auto-regressive moving average model to predict the energy consumption in 2010 in China. The paper believes that in a certain period in the near future, the energy consumption in China will continue to increase. To enlarge scientific and technological input and innovation, raise the industrial quality, and raise the application efficiency of the energy is the effective route to strengthen the competitiveness of China＇s energy field and promote the economic sustainable development.