陕西省工业化、城市化进程中的能源消费变动

Change of Energy Consumption with the Process of Industrialization,Urbanization in Shaanxi

运用协整分析方法,实证分析了工业化、城市化与能源消费之间的动态相关性,并利用因素分解模型定量测算出工业化、城市化对陕西省能源消费变动的贡献份额。研究结果表明:三者之间存在协整关系,但这种长期均衡的短期纠正力量并不很强;现阶段工业化、城市化对陕西省能源需求的影响作用比较小,且呈现逐年下降趋势,能源需求不会成为制约陕西省工业化、城市化进程中的瓶颈。在当前条件下,建立有助于资源节约型的城市化推进模式和新型工业化道路是陕西省降低能耗的根本路径选择和重要途径。

This paper applies co-integration analysis to test the dynamic correlations between development of industrialization,urbanization and growth of energy consumption,and calculates the con-tribution of industrialization,urbanization to change of energy consumption with the factor decomposition model.The result shows that there exists a long-term relationship between industrialization、urbanization and energy consumption.However,in the long run,the role of correction is not prominent.In current conditions,the contribution of industrialization、urbanization to the energy consumption is smaller,and its trend is decreasing.Therefore,the energy need will not become restricts in Shaanxi industrialization、 urbanization advancement the bottleneck.