福建省碳排放的因素分解实证研究

Decomposition Empirical Study of Carbon Emissions for Fujian

本文基于1994—2008年的时间序列统计数据,采用对数平均权重的Divisia分解法将影响福建省碳排放的因素分解为能源结构因素、能源排放强度、能源效率和经济发展,建立福建省人均碳排放的因素分解模型,定量衡量各因素对福建省人均碳排放的贡献大小,得出经济发展是福建人均碳排放最大的拉动因素,能源效率是抑制福建人均碳排放最重要的因素,而能源结构对福建人均碳排放的影响相对较小但今后贡献可能增大等结论。

Based on the series data statistics of 1994-2008,the paper uses the logarithmic mean weight Divisia method to decomposite the factors which may affect the carbon emissions of Fujian Province to energy structure,energy emission intensity,energy efficiency and economic development.Then it establishes Fujian＇s per capita carbon emissions factor decomposition model to measure the contribution of carbon emissions per capita of various factors on Fujian Province quantitativly.The conclusion is：economic development of Fujian＇s per capita is the biggest pull factors of carbon emissions,energy efficiency is the the most important inhibition factor of Fujian＇s per capita carbon emissions,while the effect of energy structure of Fujian＇s per capita carbon emissions is relatively small,however,the contribution may increase in future.