中国通货膨胀及其波动性关系的实证研究

Empirical Research on the Link Between China's Inflation and Variability

本文利用GARCH模型生成中国通货膨胀波动性的衡量指标,并实证分析1983年1月至2010年4月中国的通货膨胀与通货膨胀波动性之间的关系。结果表明:在中国,通货膨胀率是通货膨胀波动性的Granger原因,通货膨胀对通货膨胀波动性有稳定的正向影响关系,同时相同强度的通货膨胀冲击远远大于通货紧缩冲击对通货膨胀波动性的影响。对中国而言,控制通货膨胀比追求经济增长更重要。

In this paper,GARCH model generation Chinese measure of inflation volatility,and Analysis from January 1983 to April 2010 China ＇s inflation and inflation volatility relationship.The results show that in China high inflation rate Granger causes high inflation variability,not vice versa.There is a stable and positive relationship between inflation and inflation variability,which is significant difference between the affects to inflation variability coming from the shock of inflation and that of deflation.Finally we drew conclusions that the control of inflation is more important than pursuing the economic growth.