反周期政策作用下的资产收益特征变化

On the Change of Features of Asset Returns under Counter-Cyclical Policy

发达国家经验表明,在经济周期的四个阶段,股票、债券、商品和现金四类资产的收益表现有显著差异。但在反周期的货币政策和财政政策的作用下,资产收益的一般规律可能会被改变。本文比较分析了2007年以来新一轮中波周期中我国资产收益状况,发现政策虽然会影响到特定阶段的资产收益特征,但却很难改变资产收益的长期特征。

The experience of developed countries shows that in the four stages of economic cycle, four types of assets such as stocks, bonds, commodities and cash have vastly different return performance. However, the general law of asset return may be changed under the influence of counter-cyclical monetary and fiscal policy. This paper comparatively analyzes the return on assets in China since 2007 and finds out that although the policy may affect the characteristics of asset return in a particular phase, it is difficult to change the long-term characteristics of asset returns.