人民币真实汇率问题的实证研究——基于巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应的分析

The Empirical Research on RMB Real Exchange Rate Based on the Balassa-Samuelson Effect

人民币真实汇率的问题近年来一直是国际金融及国际经济学界研究一个热点。根据经典的巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应模型分析,对巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应在中国人民币汇率变动中的作用进行实证分析,研究发现,由于我国"二元经济结构效应"和"贸易条件恶化效应"的存在,人民币对美元的汇率在一定时期内没有明显的巴拉萨-萨缪尔森效应,但是从长期来看这种趋势还是存在的,并且有特殊的表现形式。

In recent years,the international financial and economic circles have been focus on the RMB real exchange rate issue.Based on the Balassa-Samuelson effect model,this paper empirically analyses Balassa-Samuelson effect impacts on the RMB real exchange rate changes.It shows that the exchange rate of RMB is against the U.S.dollar in the period of time without significant Palestinian Balassa-Samuelson effect,because of the dual economic structure effects and the deteriorating terms of trade effect.However in the long term trend it will still exist and have a special form.