钱塘江河口围垦回淤过程预测探讨

Study on Prediction of Aggradation Processes for Reclamation Project in Qiantangjiang Estuary

在河口进行围垦，由于边界条件的改变和纳潮量的变化，一般都会引起河床的冲淤变化，对淤积过程的预测是一个非常重要且困难的问题。本文根据定床潮流计算的结果，利用河床变形方程求得围垦后的初始淤积速率，利用最小能耗原理求得极限淤积平衡状态，而由灰色理论求得整个淤积过程，经动床物理模型的印证和实测资料的检验以及工程实施后的发展过程的验证，均表明本文提出的预测方法是可行的，具有一定的可靠性和预测精度。

River bed level would be changed to meet the changed boundary conditions and tidal volume due to reclamation project in estuary. How to predict the aggradation processes for reclamation is important and difficult. This paper suggests a prediction method for the aggradation processes based on the results of fixed bed tidal flow computation,the initial aggradation velocity derived from river bed continuity equation,the limit balance state of aggradation from minimum stream power and the aggradation processes from grey model. The feasibility, reliability and forecasting accuracy of this method have been verified by movable model and field data, and acceptable agreement has been obtained between the ovserved and computed aggradation processes.