中国技术进步与失业的关系分析

Analysis on the relationship between technological progress and unemployment in China

从理论上论证了技术进步在微观上的就业挤出效应及联动效应、宏观上的挤出效应及互补偿效应。认为在宏观上技术进步对就业有挤出效应(或对失业有正向作用);同时技术进步对就业又有补偿效应(或对失业有负向作用)。建立了技术进步与就业关系的VAR模型,用中国改革开放以来的数据对该模型进行了检验,结果证明了这两种效应的确存在。

The crowding - out effect and coupling effect at the micro level and the crowding - out effect and compen- sation effect at the macro level between the technological progress and employment were demonstrated. Technologi- cal progress at the macro level has crowding - out effect on employment or has positive correlation on unemploy- ment; meanwhile, it has compensation effect on employment or negative effect on unemployment. A VAR model was established to show the relationship between technological progress and employment and tests the model with the statistical data since the reform and opening - up of China. The result testifies the existence of these effects.