砂土液化全概率分析方法探讨

Research on Soil Liquefaction with a Full Probability Method

基于全概率理论,同时考虑地震和土性两方面不确定性对土层一点液化势指数的影响,推导出在一定年限内土层一点液化势指数及整个柱状土层液化程度的概率分布,并通过算例进行了说明。结果表明,砂土液化全概率分析方法具有时间和统计上的意义,更合理地评价了场地的液化可能性。

Based on full probability method,the effect on the soil liquefaction index is considered of the variance in the occurrences of earthquake and the variance of soil resistance.The probability distribution is deduced on soil liquefaction index to each soil layer and every liquefaction grade of whole layer in certain fixed number of years,and the method is applied in practical engineering.The results show that the soil liquefaction in full probability has the significance in time and statistics,and is more rational to soil liquefaction assessment.