中国城市化与二氧化碳排放量的协整分析

Cointegration Analysis of Urbanization and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China

中国经济未来仍将保持良好的发展态势,经济增长的同时常常伴随着城市化过程,含碳能源的消费带动城市化进程的同时,也使得大气中的二氧化碳含量明显增加,发展与环保之间的关系值得权衡。在已有的理论基础上,采用1978～2006年的相关统计数据对中国城市化与含碳能源消费发生的二氧化碳排放量进行协整分析,同时建立误差修正模型,并运用Granger因果关系检验的方法,反映经济发展过程中城市化与二氧化碳排放量之间的规律性变化。城市化与二氧化碳排放量之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,二期滞后时,具有协整关系。同时Granger因果关系检验结果表明,中国的城市化进程不同于发达工业化国家,与二氧化碳排放量之间不具有理论上的双向因果关系。二期滞后时,城市化是二氧化碳排放量的Granger原因,但后者不是前者的原因,对其不具有反馈效应。

The Chinese economy will maintain a good development trend in future. Economic growth is often accompanied by the urbanization process. While promoting urbanization, carbonaceous energy consumption also makes the atmospheric carbon dioxide increase significantly, so it is imperative to weigh the relationship between development and environmental protection. Based on the existing theories, the paper adopts relevant statistical data from 1978 to 2006 and makes cointegration analyses of China＇s urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions caused by carbonaceous energy consumption. It also sets up an error correction model and uses the Granger causality test method to reveal the regular changes between urbanization and carbon dioxide emission in the process of economic development. There is a long - term, stable and constant relationship between urbanization and carbon dioxide emission, and there is a cointegration relationship in the event of the second - order lag. Meanwhile, the Granger causality test re＇suits also show that China＇s urbanization process is different from that of developed and industrialized countries, and there is no theoretical two -way causal relationship with carbon dioxide emissions.