信贷增长与经济增长的实证分析——以湖南为例

The Empirical Analysis of the Credit Growth and the Economic Growth

今年以来,受适度宽松政策影响,银行信贷迅猛投入,但经济复苏势头与信贷高投入形成一定反差。对此,本文利用VAR向量自回归模型,从信贷总量和信贷期限结构两个方面分析贷款对GDP的影响。结果表明,信贷总量和不同期限贷款均是GDP变化的Granger原因;GDP对中长期贷款冲击具有持久、连续的正向响应,但滞后期较长;对短期贷款冲击的即时响应非常明显,但波动较大、不稳定;对票据融资则短期内具有一定的负向响应。工业增加值和固定资产投资对不同期限贷款的冲击也明显不同。同时,我们可以进一步得出,贷款长期化趋势是贷款增速与GDP增速差距拉大的主要原因。

Since this year, subject to a modest easing monetary policy, the momentum of economic recovery contrasts with a certain high input of the credit. The results showed that the total credit volume and different maturities are Granger causes of changes in GDP; GDP hasn＇ t only a lasting and continuous positive response but a longer lag period that impact on the long-term loans; The impact of short-term loans is very obvious, but volatile and unstable; Notes are negative response. At the same time, we can further conclude that the long-term trend of loan is the main reason between a loan growth and GDP growth gap.