风险加速效应及其顺向管理政策研究

Research on Risk-acceleration Effect and the Downwind Strategies for Risk Managements

风险内生于人们的社会、经济活动,人们的风险偏好随财富同方向变化。在完全竞争或平均利润下降趋势下,风险产品成为人们谋求利益最大化的工具。风险有类似蝴蝶效应的加速效应,是内因和外因作用的结果。外因而言,逆向控制违背风险内在加速效应,收效差;顺向管理更符合风险的内在传导机制,能够防范和化解风险,引导社会和谐、稳定发展。

Risk, following the society wealth＇ s steps, is born within the social and economic activities. Risk becomes a tool that is held by people to pursue the paranormal return under the perfect competition or the downing average profit. The butterfly-effect of risk-acceleration results from the endogenesis and exogenous causes. For the exogenous aspects, the reversed strategies for risk managements violate the risk law, which makes little senses; instead, the downwind strategies do work well and accords with the endogenesis mechanism of the risk, which leads harmoniousness and stabilization society by understanding and thawing the risk.