基于BP神经网络的义乌市水资源需求量预测

Forecast of the water resources demand in Yiwu based on BP neural network

针对区域水资源需求量的预测问题,由影响义乌市水资源需求量变化的三类影响因子——经济发展与水资源量不协调因素、人口因素和水环境破坏因素三类入手,运用BP神经网络模型对该区域水资源需求量进行预测,通过网络学习训练得出义乌市2010年水资源需求量为2.684103×108m3。其结果可为政府决策者制定与水资源相协调的区域发展规划提供一定的参考。

Aimed at the forecast of regional water resources demand,taking Yiwu as an example,the three types of the main effect factors of water resources demand in Yiwu were figured out,which included incongruous factors between economic development and water resources,population factor and break of water environment .The paper applied BP neural network model to predict water resources demand in the region .Through the network learning and training,the total water resources demand in Yiwu in 2010 will reach 2.684 103×108 m3.The result can provide some reference for the government policy makers to make a plan of the regional development which is coordinated with the water resources.