天山一号冰川地区气候要素的变化及其对冰川物质平衡的影响

Climate changes and their influence on the mass-balances of Glacier No.1 in the headwater of Urumqi River,Tianshan,China

通过对逐日气温、降水、流量和相对湿度等实测数据进行小波分析,提取了天山乌鲁木齐河源一号冰川地区近10年来的气候变化特征.在此基础上,运用灰熵关联分析方法进一步研究了冰川物质平衡量与不同气候要素的关联关系.结果显示:研究区气候要素在4d,16d,32d和64d尺度上的变化存在阶段性、周期性和弱趋势性三大特征;在较宽的时间尺度上,气温要素的极大值与极小值呈非对称性变化;1996-2004年期间,冰川物质平衡主要受气温类要素的影响;9-5月(物质平衡年)的降水量是冰川物质积累的重要来源.

Based on the daily data of temperature, rainfall, flow and relative humidity, this pa- per attempted to show the characters of climate change at Urumqi Glacier No. 1 in recent 10 years by wavelet analysis. Furthermore, grey entropy relational analysis was used to study the correlation between the glacier mass balances and various meteorological elements. The results indicated that： （1）at the scale of 4 d, 16 d, 32 d and 64 d, the changes of meteorological factors in the study area have three major characteristics represented by stages, periodicity, and weak trend; （2）at a wider time scale, there is a non-symmetry change between the maximum and the minimum of temperatures; （3）during the period of 1996- 2004, the glacier mass balance is mainly affected by the temperature factors; （4） the precipitation from September to May（ the balance year） is the main source of Glacier accumulation.