投资对经济增长时滞效应的实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of Time-lag Effect of Investment on Economic Growth

投资是中国经济增长的基本促进因素,但就其作用机理上存在很多不同看法。本文使用中国1981年至2008年的经济数据,基于计量经济学的多项式分布滞后模型,对全社会固定资产投资与国内生产总值相互关系建立计量经济模型,进行了深入探讨。基本观点是投资对经济增长的作用时间较长,可以分为拉动作用、生产作用和分配作用。过度的投资增长其挤占负效应必然会发生。

Investment is a basic promoting factor in the economic growth of China. But there are many different views about its effect mechanism. In this paper, with Chinese economic data from 1981 to 2008, based on the econometric model of the polynomial distributed lag （PDL） , it explores the relationship between the social total fixed asset investment and the gross domestic product. The basic view is that the time of investment effeeting on economic growth is long, and its effects can be divided into pulling effect, producing effect and distributing effect. The crowding negative effect of Excessive investment growth is bound to occur.