山西省作物气候生产力变化特征

Response of crop climate-productivity to climate change in Shanxi Province

利用山西省50个站1961～2005年的年平均气温、降水量资料和1978～2005年全省玉米产量资料,运用趋势系数和EOF分解方法,分析了山西的气候变化,计算了气候生产力并用玉米产量作了检验,在此基础上对气候生产力的时空演变作了研究。结果表明:山西45年的气温变化呈增加趋势,降水量呈减少趋势;气候生产力能较好地反映气候对作物产量的影响;山西年气候生产力由东南向西北逐次递减,南部高于北部,东部高于西部;中西部和南部的年际变化差异最大,在这一地区气候生产力最不稳定;受气候变化的影响,其总体呈下降趋势;全省气候生产力变化的空间相关结构可以用三个模态来表征,即全省一致型,南北反向型和"+-+"型。

Based on the meteorological data of 50 representative stations in recent 45 years and maise yield during 1978-2005,by using the Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF）and other statistic methods,responses of crop climate-productivity to climate change in Shanxi were analyzed. The result showed that the warm dry climate trend is significant,that climate-productivity in southeast area,which is a representative of the effect of climate to crop yield,is higher than in northwest,and that the year-to-year difference of climate-productivity is higher in area from central to southwest than in others. Climate-productivity shows a falling trend in recent 45 years due to climate change. And its anomaly correlation structure could be represented with 3 spatial patterns,namely,mode of whole province uniform,reverse direction mode between north and south area and seesaw mode.