共和盆地近50年来草地荒漠化驱动因素定量研究

Quantitative Research of Driving Factors on Grassland Desertification over Last50 Years in Gonghe Basin

共和盆地是黄河上游土地沙漠化严重地区,土地沙漠化已经成为共和盆地生态环境恶化的主要问题。选取青海共和盆地从1953-2008年共56a的农牧业人口数量、牲畜数量、耕地面积、粮食总产量、年平均气温、年降水量、年大风日数、年蒸发量8个社会经济和自然因素数据进行分析,运用因子分析法研究了盆地草地荒漠化的驱动因素。结果表明:共和盆地1953-2008年这个时间段人类活动对草地荒漠化的贡献率为53.75%;自然因素对草地荒漠化的贡献率为38.25%,超过1/3;人为因子和自然因素的综合影响,其贡献率仅为7.99%。说明人类活动对共和盆地生态环境的影响大于自然因素,是影响共和盆地草地荒漠化的主体因素。

Desertification is very serious in region of Gonghe basin in the upper of the Yellow River.Desertification is the main issue of environment deterioration in this region.The paper selected eight socio-economic and natural factors that included the rural population,livestock,arable land,grain output,the annual mean temperature,annual precipitation,annual strong wind days,the annual evaporation,and quantificationally studied the relationship between those factors and grassland desertification.The analyzed data covered about 56years from 1953to 2008.Using factor analysis of the basin,the drivers of grassland desertification were examined.The contribution rate is 53.75%in the grassland desertification of human activities in Gonghe basin during 1953-2008period.Natural factors contributing to grassland desertification was 38.25%,more than 1/3.The contribution rate of human factors and natural factors was 7.99%.It showed that human activities impatcting the ecological environment was more than natural factors,and was the main driving factors of grassland desertification in Gonghe basin.