多沙河流次洪横断面冲淤面积随机预估

Random Prediction of Scouring and Silting Change on Cross Section of Sediment-laden River During once Flood

提出一种通过预测多沙河流横向变化预估河段冲淤的方法。通过追踪多沙河流次洪过程中横断面面积变化,及分析多沙河流次洪横断面面积变化成因,建立了横断面冲淤变化模型。利用此模型并结合蒙特卡洛方法,实现了给定水沙条件下,对次洪冲淤导致的横断面面积变化的预估。经用于黄河内蒙古河段实例分析,假设洪水冲刷内蒙古河道,上游巴彦高勒、三湖河口断面分别扩大286,283m3,下游头道拐断面几乎没变;用输沙平衡法计算结果上游巴-三河段冲刷121万t,下游三-头河段冲刷35万t,表明该方法实用、可行。可以为多沙河流的河道治理、防灾减灾决策提供了技术支撑,并丰富了多沙河流冲淤计算方法。

The paper proposed a method about scouring and silting change amount on cross section by forcasting section change about scouring and silting with sediment-laden river cross section change during once flood and analyzing the causes.Combination of the model with monte carlo method realized the random prediction on fixed water and sediment condition.Taking inner Mongolia Reach for example,assumed flooding reach,Bayabgaole and Sanhuhekou section respectively enlarge 286,283m3;Toudaoguai section change very little.Balance of carring sediment＇results show that upper more and down less.Technical support was provided for river controlling policy,disaster prevention and reduction and enrich methods of scouring and silting change amount on sediment-laden river.