土地利用及其生态服务价值演变的驱动力与预测研究——以江苏省为例

The Driving Force and Prediction of the Evolution of Land Use and Ecosystem Services Value——A case Study of Jiangsu Province

利用江苏省1999-2007年土地及相关经济社会统计数据,定量研究土地利用及其生态服务价值的演变状况,并深入分析演变的驱动因素。在此基础上利用GM(1,1)模型进行相关的预测研究。结果表明:江苏省1999-2007年园地、居民点及工矿用地、交通用地呈增加态势,耕地、林地、水域、未用地出现下降趋势,生态服务价值亦出现下降趋势。2010-2020年各类型土地及其生态服务价值延续1999-2007年变动趋势,且不断地扩大。在1999-2020年影响江苏省生态服务价值变化的主要因素逐渐由人口数量、农业现代化水平转变为人口质量、固定资产投资和城市化水平,表明人口素质、固定资产投资、城市化日益成为影响江苏省生态环境的主要因素。

By using the statistical data of land and related socio-economic indicators of Jiangsu province from 1999to 2007,this paper conducted a quantitative study on the evolution of land use and ecosystem services value,and then analyzed the driving factors.On this basis,aprediction is made by using the GM（1,1）model.The land of orchard,residential and industrial,traffic increased while ecosystem services value and the land of cultivated,forest,water decreased from 1999to 2007.From 2010to 2020,the various types of land and the ecosystem services value continued the same changing trend of 1999to 2007,but showing an expanding in trend.In 1999and 2020,the major factors that made the impact on the value of ecosystem services of Jiangsu province were gradually changing from the population,the level of agricultural modernization to the quality of the population,investment of fixed assets and the level of urbanization which indicated that the quality of the population,investment of fixed assets and the level of urbanization were increasingly becoming the main factors to impact the eco-environment in Jiangsu province.