摘要
根据漳河水库1957～2008年年降水量变化的实测资料,利用R/S分析的原理和方法计算了H指数,建立了R(τ)/S(τ)与τ的关系式,并对未来水库降水趋势进行了预测,结果表明,预测趋势与实际情况基本吻合,R/S分析可以作为水库未来来水趋势的一种预测方法,有一定的预报精度和实用价值。
The Hurst Exponent is calculated using the principle and methodology of R/S method against the observation data of the Zhanghe Reservoir rainfall in 1957~2008,and the formula for the relationship between and is established.The method is used for rainfall tendency prediction of the reservoir.The results show that the tendencies predicted agree with the actual conditions.Thus,the method is one of the effective approaches for water inflow tendency forecast of reservoir in the future,for it has high prediction precision and practical value.
出处
《水科学与工程技术》
2010年第4期1-3,共3页
Water Sciences and Engineering Technology
关键词
水库来水量
变化趋势
H指数
R/S分析
water inflow of reservoir
change tendency
Hurst Exponent
R/S method
