灰色系统理论在原油管道结蜡规律预测模型的应用

Grey Prediction Model of the Regularity of Wax Deposition in Crude Oil Pipeline

原油结蜡是影响管道安全、经济和高效运行的一个重要因素。为了对输油管道的结蜡状况进行预测,掌握输油管道结蜡的基本规律,应用灰色系统理论中的模型对输油管道结蜡速度和结蜡厚度等指标的实际统计数据进行了灰色动态拟合,建立了相应的灰色微分方程和时间响应函数。结果表明:残差小于2%,模型精度满足工程实际需要。

Problems related to wax deposition seriously threaten crude pipeline running in the aspects of safety,economy and high efficiency.In order to predict the wax deposition along a pipeline accurately and study its basic law,a grey system theory model is applied to fit practical statistic data about the wax sediment velocity and the wax deposition thickness.Thus a corresponding grey calculus equation and a time response function are established.The predictive result indicates that due to the use of this model,the error of predicting the value range is within 2%.It completely satisfies practical engineering needs.