中国能源消费的产业关联效应分析

Industry Linkage Effects Analysis of Energy Consumption in China

本文将产业关联理论应用于能源消费分析中,本文运用投入产出技术给出一种新的部门能源消费感应度弹性系数和影响力弹性系数的计算方法,给出能源消费关键部门的确定方法,该方法是相对于能源经济中运用投入产出方法和其他定量分析方法的一种补充的方法。并采用2007年中国投入产出表和各部门能源消费数据对中国能源消费的产业关联效应进行分析,揭示了不同生产部门最终产品的变动对其他部门以及自身能源消费的影响。分析结果表明,能源消费关键部门主要集中在冶金业、化学工业、机械设备制造业和交通运输业。另外,第三产业在我国能源消费结构中的地位也在悄然发生着变化,已经成为我国能源消费的主力军。

In this paper we apply the theory of industrial linkage to the energy economy, and approach the new algorithm of sectoral energy consumption Industry Linkage coefficient using input - output analysis. The method of sectoral energy consumption classification and the key sectors of energy consumption are presented. As an example, we apply the proposed methodology to analyze the Industry Linkage Effects based on 2007 national input - output data and energy consumption data. The result indicates that the key sectors of energy consumption mainly concentrate on Smelting and Pressing of Metals industry, Chemical Industry, Transport--Storage--Post in 2007. In addition, the tertiary industry has also become the main force of energy consumption in China.